The Prediction Post is shutting down. Come get my March Madness bracket picks instead!

My fun experiment is coming to an end. Thank you for your support!

I’ll no longer be writing The Prediction Post. Thanks everyone for your support of my side project!

As a fan of forecasting and prediction markets, I had a ton of fun digging through the headlines each day to find compelling contrast between the quantitative insights of prediction markets versus the stories the media tells us through their news headlines. I loved informing you that, for example, when Biden says he’s “hopeful” about a ceasefire in Gaza by Monday, that you should understand the markets put it at only a 20% likelihood.

Ultimately though, it was just too much work each day on such a niche project to maintain on a regular basis. Email open rates were pretty good, and I truly appreciated the positive and constructive feedback from many of you, but the idea simply didn’t catch on enough to warrant spending precious paternity time on this project (don’t worry, I - mostly - worked on this while my newborn was napping or spending time with mom).

If you’d like to continue supporting my work, I invite you to subscribe to my personal newsletter at dglid.substack.com:

For now (and maybe forever) I’ll use this newsletter to share my highly-sought-out men’s March Madness bracket picks. I just posted my 2024 March Madness bracket picks:

Since I launched that newsletter a few days ago and released my bracket, it already has more subscribers than The Prediction Post got in a whole month! As such, I’ll head in the direction of product-market fit over there for the time being.

Thank you so much for your support of The Prediction Post. I still think it’s a worthwhile idea; maybe it will come back one day from me or someone else. I encourage you contribute to improving decision making by participating in prediction markets (Manifold is my favorite prediction market site and it’s completely free as of this writing!) Learn more about this and other good you can do for the world at effectivealtruism.org.

Until we speak again, I look forward to seeing you over at dglid.substack.com.

Best,

David Glidden